Several weeks ago, when Mr Gaspar was one of a handful of people who already knew he was close to be the ex-minister of finance for Portugal, he launched two ideas, a bad one and a good one, none of which got too much attention, somewheat to my surprise. Both ideas, not too favourable to the national banking industry, risk being sidetracked or lost in the present political shuffling or just maybe Mr Gaspar stole the political stage of anxious succeeding governors who will come to re-introduce the proposals as if they were their own.
1. a national development bank sponsered by KFW
On 22 May, what we now know will have been a cordial personal goodbye visit as minister of finance, Mr Gaspar joined Mr Schäuble in Berlin for a one-on-one, where both conferred to the press that in order to combat rising youth unemployment, Germany will make available financial and technical resources to Portuguese entrepreneurs via the KFW, the 1948 Marshall plan founded German development bank, used also in the unification of West and East Germany and 100% owned by the German national and bundeslanden governments, currently presided by the same Mr Schäuble.
This means that any potential young and bright Portuguese business plan will have direct access to two essential componentes traditionally unattainable with any Portuguese bank; (1) financing of at least less about 4 - 5 % and - not less important (2) a vast know how of (global) markets and industries that may turn a good entrepreneurial idea into something concretely viable.
For any individual young and new endeavour - whether born out of present misfortune or potential market needs - this is great news. For a nation as a whole, looking forward to the next 25 years, the idea that any feasible and marketable idea will be contracted and supported at a foreign state institute, possibly with an option to convert part of any loan into a (minor) equity participation, I would find outright scary.
In Spain a very similar plan for the same motives has already been put into motion and Italy is also candidate. I guess the only reason why Greece is outright excluded by KFW is probably because there people can recognise a Trojan horse from miles away. Bad idea.
2. government bond buying by the general population
On 21 June, out of his last ECOFIN meeting, Mr Gaspar transpired - in public - his thoughts on how it would be of interest for any common (Portuguese) citizen to become able to directly purchase Portuguese treasury bonds.
Not entirely a new idea in the financing of crises struck sovereignty, but excellent timing all the same.
Very much contrary to trends in other Euro shaken countries, Portuguese citizens continue accumulating savings at local banks, without really knowing where to invest yet concerned on the Euro-wide debate on the security of cash deposits in struggling banks. Equally particular to Portuguese society is that people will be quick to massively adhere to a type of nationalistic salvage operation and put their money where their mouths are, against rating agencies and overall international sceptism on Portuguese sovereign feasibility.
Evidently, patriotism these days has a price and a fairly attractive rate of return of around 6 % which treasury bonds do promise, would be essential. Good idea.
2013-07-09
2013-07-06
The day after ... the days ahead
There is this story on (in) dispensability which teaches us that any person is as indispendable as the hole that is left in the water after you put your fist. You can splash all you want and water may turmoil, but with time it will be leveled back where it was with no sign of what was in there.
Mr Paulo Portas is possibly the most experienced politician active as such at present within Portugal, and I do not mean that in a sarcastic manner. Within the current government he must be the principal defender of less state, less expenses and thus tax, less involvement and thus more room for society.
I am not sure for how long he has been presiding his political party but probably his biggest weakness is not having been able to find a sucessor. Many people will admit it would not be easy to follow in the footsteps of someone with a surviror's instinct, manoeuvring between formal political procedures while pursuing an idea, a vision for a country. I suspect he is very much in charge with little effort inside his own party. There is no question that his way of speech by far outranks the ability of the prime minister, which is particularly handy in times where communciation between a government and a population is not at its best but very necessary.
So when Mr Portas decides to submit his resignation as minister (and in this goverment it does not really matter this is for foreign affairs) he will have had a fair idea of the effects on national politics and financial markets.
This event, formalised by a letter of resignation which has remained declined by the prime minister and president, will be something Mr Portas will be subletly referring to throughout the remaing time this government persists and very outspokenly when we do get to elections, each time policial action or inaction in the months ahead do not align with what is currently being negotiated and will be very roughly and vaguely announced tomorrow to the general public.
And he will be doing so because he and some other government officials, notably the ex-minister of finance, already have a fairly realistic projection of what lies ahead on their protected desktops and have realized that over the next 6 months a population and creditors slowly and gradually will be forced to terms that the present foreign financial support programme will not be enough and Mr Portas simply is not the type that wishes to be associated to a losing team, more than others.
So we will probably see some positive impulses in policies in the months ahead and oppostion parties and civil demonstrators will continue reminding us of this week's events in a constant wave of stay or go. I'll admit that this week was original and almost entertaining worthy of a couple of lines in political history, but do hope that the present government stays on long enough to give the necessary time to real and thought alternate movements from within society to see through some real changes, the first of which can be a straighforward meaningful cut in government size and waisted time on handling mere political scenarios, egos and speeches.
Mr Paulo Portas is possibly the most experienced politician active as such at present within Portugal, and I do not mean that in a sarcastic manner. Within the current government he must be the principal defender of less state, less expenses and thus tax, less involvement and thus more room for society.
I am not sure for how long he has been presiding his political party but probably his biggest weakness is not having been able to find a sucessor. Many people will admit it would not be easy to follow in the footsteps of someone with a surviror's instinct, manoeuvring between formal political procedures while pursuing an idea, a vision for a country. I suspect he is very much in charge with little effort inside his own party. There is no question that his way of speech by far outranks the ability of the prime minister, which is particularly handy in times where communciation between a government and a population is not at its best but very necessary.
So when Mr Portas decides to submit his resignation as minister (and in this goverment it does not really matter this is for foreign affairs) he will have had a fair idea of the effects on national politics and financial markets.
This event, formalised by a letter of resignation which has remained declined by the prime minister and president, will be something Mr Portas will be subletly referring to throughout the remaing time this government persists and very outspokenly when we do get to elections, each time policial action or inaction in the months ahead do not align with what is currently being negotiated and will be very roughly and vaguely announced tomorrow to the general public.
And he will be doing so because he and some other government officials, notably the ex-minister of finance, already have a fairly realistic projection of what lies ahead on their protected desktops and have realized that over the next 6 months a population and creditors slowly and gradually will be forced to terms that the present foreign financial support programme will not be enough and Mr Portas simply is not the type that wishes to be associated to a losing team, more than others.
So we will probably see some positive impulses in policies in the months ahead and oppostion parties and civil demonstrators will continue reminding us of this week's events in a constant wave of stay or go. I'll admit that this week was original and almost entertaining worthy of a couple of lines in political history, but do hope that the present government stays on long enough to give the necessary time to real and thought alternate movements from within society to see through some real changes, the first of which can be a straighforward meaningful cut in government size and waisted time on handling mere political scenarios, egos and speeches.
2013-07-05
Personal vs public pride
Well, well, well .... it is fairly unique for a Portuguese person not to have to introduce towards the large world out there what's typical in this country - touristically sold as Europe's best kept secret - and so it appears to be with the top level political doorslamming in the last 3 days.
The departure of one of the ECOFIN's favorite ministers and the break between the goverment's coalition parties has struck headlines in anything from worldwide tabloids to trading room screens, not to mention the social networking.
Yes, there is food for multi-national thought in the events which bear relevance for what the EU and the IMF should generally expect from countries with whom financial aid packages are agreed.
In a mere domestic sphere however the Portuguese people are vividly confronted with the visible slow qualitative evolution of its politicians and painfully reminded of the last occassion where a foreign authority had to summon political party heads to communicate with one another, the time of the formalization of the bailout in April 2011.
I perceived it as particularly relevant that the formation of this government had to consist of more than one political party, so that this potential turning point could also bring in some planning and agreement allowing everyone to concentrate on building day-to-day progress instead of wishy washy distracting disputes that seem to haunt parliamentary debates since forever, knowing that political campaign promisses of not looking or blaming the past would have very short life spans.
The problem is not just with who is in government at present, but involves all of the 230 people that got a seat in parliament and another couple of hundred who stand in line with each election or once were there and now get some fee to be original on TV or as an in-house consultant.
Politicians of a handful parties have taken their country and its population hostage, consciously or not.
The additional €uros each citizen has invested into the national treasury over the past 3 years, accompanied by increasing hardshift in household and business budgets and individual and entrepreneurial lives, risk being instantly converted into higher state debt payments instead of a return of a better day. It is sad that the risk is nearly entirely dependent on what patronizing politicians choose (not) to do or say.
I do not doubt the general patriotism nor the ability or even willingness of many Portuguese politicans to put in the extra hours their position would require. I do question their skill and ability to listen and think before they speak. There are some stringent matters of effectiveness and productivity left unattended nationwide, which is what eventually generated the need for a bailout in the first place.
The events of the past few days show how any attempt for resolve in society can be pulled back by one momentaneous act on a political leadership level and I suspectthis will have discouraging effects on that same society. I can only hope the attention hungry politicians of the moment find a way to step back, take the remaining cheques of the bailout programme and start making some room for a higher degree of civil involvement in matters of state, timely enough for the next elections. It is more likely people will see more of the same however.
If you want to recover some of your money in the meantime, there are internet gambling sites where one can bet on horses, poker players and now also whether this government will stay or go.
The departure of one of the ECOFIN's favorite ministers and the break between the goverment's coalition parties has struck headlines in anything from worldwide tabloids to trading room screens, not to mention the social networking.
Yes, there is food for multi-national thought in the events which bear relevance for what the EU and the IMF should generally expect from countries with whom financial aid packages are agreed.
In a mere domestic sphere however the Portuguese people are vividly confronted with the visible slow qualitative evolution of its politicians and painfully reminded of the last occassion where a foreign authority had to summon political party heads to communicate with one another, the time of the formalization of the bailout in April 2011.
I perceived it as particularly relevant that the formation of this government had to consist of more than one political party, so that this potential turning point could also bring in some planning and agreement allowing everyone to concentrate on building day-to-day progress instead of wishy washy distracting disputes that seem to haunt parliamentary debates since forever, knowing that political campaign promisses of not looking or blaming the past would have very short life spans.
The problem is not just with who is in government at present, but involves all of the 230 people that got a seat in parliament and another couple of hundred who stand in line with each election or once were there and now get some fee to be original on TV or as an in-house consultant.
Politicians of a handful parties have taken their country and its population hostage, consciously or not.
The additional €uros each citizen has invested into the national treasury over the past 3 years, accompanied by increasing hardshift in household and business budgets and individual and entrepreneurial lives, risk being instantly converted into higher state debt payments instead of a return of a better day. It is sad that the risk is nearly entirely dependent on what patronizing politicians choose (not) to do or say.
I do not doubt the general patriotism nor the ability or even willingness of many Portuguese politicans to put in the extra hours their position would require. I do question their skill and ability to listen and think before they speak. There are some stringent matters of effectiveness and productivity left unattended nationwide, which is what eventually generated the need for a bailout in the first place.
The events of the past few days show how any attempt for resolve in society can be pulled back by one momentaneous act on a political leadership level and I suspectthis will have discouraging effects on that same society. I can only hope the attention hungry politicians of the moment find a way to step back, take the remaining cheques of the bailout programme and start making some room for a higher degree of civil involvement in matters of state, timely enough for the next elections. It is more likely people will see more of the same however.
If you want to recover some of your money in the meantime, there are internet gambling sites where one can bet on horses, poker players and now also whether this government will stay or go.
2013-07-03
Eurodigging
Henry Kissinger will have said once that he would not know who to call if he would wanted to discuss an issue with Europe.
It is almost ironic that the postion the EU created for Catherine Ashton as head of external affairs, which was referred to by José Durrão Barroso as the answer to Kissinger's remark, is now formally stepping up towards the US to demand explanations on the latest hints on spying actions. This, in parallel to formal diplomatic moves from that same EU's member states Germany and France, presumably for the interest of those countries' own purpose.
I wonder how the US State Deparment will instruct the NSA to prioritize the thus three pending queries and whether anyone on the receiving end will compare the answers. I suppose the UK should probably also press release it's discontent to avoid people thinking it was not equally surprised. Then again, maybe Catherine Ashton's service to the union is to avoid yet another potential divide within the EU between spy-worthy and simply uninteresting member states which have nothing to offer to US intelligence (hence Kissinger's view on realpolitik).
At the same time, most, but not all, high representatives of European multilateral and individual institutions formally get together to welcome Hrvatska as the 28th EU member state, roughly shifting physical borders back to where they once were at the time the Habsburgers were blocking the Turks of the Ottoman empire. Makes one wonder whether the EU and Croatia are opening or closing a chapter, doesn't it ?
Turkey, co- founder of the Council of Europe (not to be confused with a European Council) and already part of the EU's Customs Union (for most, but not all matters) commenced EU membership negotations at the same time as Croatia, but recently the formal progress on acession was blocked by Germany and Austria and the reason for that would not be the internationally contested occupation of part of Cyprus, although Greek Cypriots are currently contemplating the purpose of EU membership, whereas many within the EU continue doubting the presence of Greece, which in turn continues struggling with the name of Macedonia, while neigbouring Albania and Serbia dispute the independence of Kosovo, next to Europe's youngest revived monarchy Montenegro. And then we have not even shifted to other corners within the EU, where nations like Scotland, Catalunya or even Flanders and Wallonie appear to want to surface what we thought to have been buried.
With such a scenario, I do not think Europeans have much to fear - in the political arena - of outsider attempts to get some insight information before anything happens.
As far as inidividuals' cyber rights (and obligations) are concerned, do note how the Council of Europe (that is the outer circle in the diagram below) has been leading the inclusive debate, bringing software developers, all European governments and society in general, together. That may be a long or even a never ending journey but possibly with a clearer view of the road ahead than for some of the inner-circles Another nobel peace prize laureate in the make ?
It is almost ironic that the postion the EU created for Catherine Ashton as head of external affairs, which was referred to by José Durrão Barroso as the answer to Kissinger's remark, is now formally stepping up towards the US to demand explanations on the latest hints on spying actions. This, in parallel to formal diplomatic moves from that same EU's member states Germany and France, presumably for the interest of those countries' own purpose.
I wonder how the US State Deparment will instruct the NSA to prioritize the thus three pending queries and whether anyone on the receiving end will compare the answers. I suppose the UK should probably also press release it's discontent to avoid people thinking it was not equally surprised. Then again, maybe Catherine Ashton's service to the union is to avoid yet another potential divide within the EU between spy-worthy and simply uninteresting member states which have nothing to offer to US intelligence (hence Kissinger's view on realpolitik).
At the same time, most, but not all, high representatives of European multilateral and individual institutions formally get together to welcome Hrvatska as the 28th EU member state, roughly shifting physical borders back to where they once were at the time the Habsburgers were blocking the Turks of the Ottoman empire. Makes one wonder whether the EU and Croatia are opening or closing a chapter, doesn't it ?
Turkey, co- founder of the Council of Europe (not to be confused with a European Council) and already part of the EU's Customs Union (for most, but not all matters) commenced EU membership negotations at the same time as Croatia, but recently the formal progress on acession was blocked by Germany and Austria and the reason for that would not be the internationally contested occupation of part of Cyprus, although Greek Cypriots are currently contemplating the purpose of EU membership, whereas many within the EU continue doubting the presence of Greece, which in turn continues struggling with the name of Macedonia, while neigbouring Albania and Serbia dispute the independence of Kosovo, next to Europe's youngest revived monarchy Montenegro. And then we have not even shifted to other corners within the EU, where nations like Scotland, Catalunya or even Flanders and Wallonie appear to want to surface what we thought to have been buried.
With such a scenario, I do not think Europeans have much to fear - in the political arena - of outsider attempts to get some insight information before anything happens.
As far as inidividuals' cyber rights (and obligations) are concerned, do note how the Council of Europe (that is the outer circle in the diagram below) has been leading the inclusive debate, bringing software developers, all European governments and society in general, together. That may be a long or even a never ending journey but possibly with a clearer view of the road ahead than for some of the inner-circles Another nobel peace prize laureate in the make ?
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