2013-03-19

The Cyprus Problem

Obviously Paul Krugman did not read my blog when I posted "Pandora's Oasis", just before Cyprus took over the EU Presidency last year, otherwise it would have been evident to him and everybody else that about 8 months later the UK would be sending a military plane with € 1 million in notes to the potential cashless British expatriate population........

Seriously, I would like to hope that when EU leading politicians, by now infamous for their indecision and over prudence, submit an offer to Cyprus to cut bank deposits by 10 or more points as a solidarity contribution, they would have contemplated the plausible popular consequences as well as a reaction from Russian presidents and prime-ministers and their fellow stakeholders.

I dug up a booklet from my library, with the title "The Cyprus Problem", something I picked up from what was once a home on the east coast of the island, below the green line. A fascinating spot, next to a UN post, from where visitors could binocular in the direction of Varosha, a ghost town which once would have housed over 15000 Greek Cypriots, an (other) unresolved diplomatic dispute, not without bloodshed, dating from well before 1974, the actual time of a Turkish invasion.

This booklet, published may be 20 years ago, with no author identified, makes the case that the only way for The Problem is for both Greece and Turkey to be outside any European (economic) Community and inside some sort of east Mediterranean Confederation.

So now Cyprus has another, more contemporary problem on its hands. Or just maybe it has an opportunity.

2013-03-13

Habemos resolutos politicum!

Whether one is catholic, religious or an atheist, inevitably there is inspiration to be found when over a hundred experienced high level leaders of the same consecration get together for a common purpose, in this case the college of cardinals to elect a new sumo pontífice to head the Holy See.

The history, the ceremony, the hierarchy, even degrees of mystery surrounding or to some extent haunting one of the world's oldest organizations.  The only handful of people which challenge it's fundamentals and objectives are overwhelmed by the enthusiasm of large numbers of admirers and followers. 

I think it was Christine Lagarde a couple of months ago, who suggested that European heads of state should get together in the same room and only be allowed to leave after they agreed upon a resolve for Europe's financial/economic/social and political dip.

I would take it one step further.

The former politicians who once were elected into office and now occassionally add on the disputes where political paths ahead should lie, knowing they no longer have a hand in governance that could hold them liable, they too should be obliged to either get into the room or take a vowe of silence and retreat to some sort of monastic life. 

All of them, on bread and water, disconnected from outside influences, inside a sealed room with nothing else to stare at than a painting of judgement day, contemplating and reflecting on the true essence of wrong and right, rather than left and right, with no possibility to abstain from the road in front of us.  The general public will then decide to which extent they want to stand in the rain or sit at home awaiting white smoke hinting a solution or indeed choose to be indifferent while community life will move on.

At present, it is certainly tempting to continue to see politicians come and go and the thought they will have a role for the rest of the (public) life they chose is potentially scary or maybe just annoying.  Then again, faced with the impossibility to one day simply abandon public office and therewith their share of responsibility just might be a good enough barrier for anyone to choose a career in politically serving the general public.

2013-03-06

Not like

I vividly remember one of the first tv documentaries that sought to portray the day-to-day life in Portugal under a bail-out regime, broadcasted at a late hour, well after prime time.

This will have been in early 2011 and whereas one could argue that the preceding nearly 3 full years of what was then still regarded a financial crisis, in itself would provide sufficient material for in.depth reports, it is rather proper to Portugal that the country first needs to formalise and document the fact that a crisis had set and that was the signing of the memorandum of understanding by government and oppostion political parties on the domestic end and the creditors of IMF, EU and ECB, referred to as troika.

At the time, most people still hardly had a notion of what national austerity meant or would come to imply for them and their surroundings and the general image a population had of "troika" was what came as something being domestically disputed inside and in front of the Greek parliament.  The general concern,, in Portugal, then was whether what was referred to as crisis would persists for 2 or 3 years.

In this documentary, somewhere in a village, a woman explained how on a regular basis she would sneak out of her house in the middle of the night in order to go and wash the clothes of her two teenager daughters in a nearby river.  She had a washing machine at home but not the cash-flow to operate it.  Teenage daughters will need their favourite clothes every day and certainly do not need a feeling of embarresement.  I was very impressed and disturbed with seeing a pragmatic person, weakened but determant to safeguard her children from the distress of some outside world.

Two years later, this past Saturday, an estimated 10 % of the population adhered to a social networked invitation to parade in various cities country wide with quite a "not like" list against the government, politicians, policies or the lack of policies, the troika committee and even against some of the countries that tend to have a greater weight in international organizations.


Amongst the demonstrants there will have been quite a few people with tragic stories to tell and, again, I was impressed, more so by the country wide organization, the size and particularly the variety of participants, young and old, employed or not, educated or not, room for some carnavalestic irony, all wrapped in the peaceful almost patriotic manner that has indeed distinguished the Portuguese popular protesting in the past months.

The big question on "what's next" remains and I believe it would be wrong to suggest people would look for some sort of return to medieval forms of popular hangings or jubelations under some king's balcony on a central square.  It would be naive to expect any concrete proposals from a revolted population towards an office holding government.

It will be a matter of time, years, maybe just months, for the perceived intrusions and intruders of what were reasonably comfortable but above all self-controlled lives, to be named and to be attributed a common unique identification and at that point some form of organized civil movements, political or not, will appear, also in Portugal.

Surely and not that slowly it is becoming rather evident that private individuals, occassionally grouped or not, do learn faster than governments do and that says something about the path ahead.