Millenium bug

Anyone who realistically wants and/or is objectively able to make a difference in any small or larger world at some point in the future has something to learn from the life of Mr. Nelson Mandela.

In between the lines of the many outspoken messages on Mandela's departure, I sense a general nostalgic farewell to the 20th century and the political personalities that have had their mark in exceptional manners, right or wrong.

The world has seen many figures arising, either by universal suffrage or via more dubious forms of appointement, taking the stage to determine, not only in word, the courses of nations and mindsets. 

There is a somewhat sad contrast with the people we see in public office but also in opposing streetwise forms, today.  

We will never know how the leadership of people like Mao Tse-tung, Roosevelt, Lenin, Gandhi or Churchill would be upheld in an environment where a larger educated population is fairly instantly informed, but then again the burden of obligations that comes with any form of leadership goes hand in hand with the privileges the position inspires at a given point in time.

Perhaps our present politicians, those that preside and execute public mandates as well as those that impute them of all society's wrong doings are justifiably struggling with an inner identity crisis, searching for inspiration that cannot be found amongst a population that sees little cause in listening into patronizing or populistic lip service.

I have no doubt most of the world already is undergoing a 21st century version of renaissance and see purpose in party politicians stepping down to a more realistic level wherein they administer common goods free from the individual temptation to become some sort of centerpiece.  The universe will decide whom demonstrates to be larger than life itself.  It always has.

La fermeture

I think I am starting to understand why we see an increasing number of women in political places.  The edge a woman brings to her position is that she will be more accustomed to hearing that people can neither live with or without her, something that apparently is affecting the focus of the majority of male governors as soon as they get into office.  It will be a matter of time before we find out how indifferent the general public being served will be to whom heads what,if the underlying apparatus remains in tact.  Mud throwing, muddling through or mud wrestling, what's the difference ?

After the latest US' internal supra-state budgeting debates, the world is gradually coming to learn the word "shutdown" in another 23 languages, varying from technical or emotional "blackouts" to more legally tuned "closures" in accordance with the variety of linguistic cultures the EU houses.  Via the mouth of its present presider, the European Commission has dropped a note that unless an additional € 2.7 billion is transferred from member states' national treasuries, it will be unable to meet normal payment terms already in November.  Worse, the threatening shortfall is presented along with a victimizing observation that the commission already has felt forced not to engage in any new contract for the time being.

Before we continue to question where these governors believe a world is or should be moving to, I would find the momentum appropriate to revisit where they (think they) come from.  I will be happy for Mr Barroso to join my dinner table at home, on an occasion where I discuss the connection between earning and spending with my 5 to 7 year old children.

In what world, small or large, public and/or private, can someone feel surprised or upset for not being able to sign for future financial endeavors if the viability of running projects prove to be questionable, whether due to lack of profit or less direct benefits or indeed budgetary mistakes.

By all means, let' s proceed with instantly canceling all non-essential services and servants dependent on the European Commission and get a clear visual on how wide and relevant that turns out to be for day-to-day life throughout the EU, including the effectiveness on projects beyond the EU's borders.  We may actually find the sum of EU institutions running at a surplus, distributable back to where monies came from in the first place.

Now would be a good time to open up while shutting down or to just shut up.

In the political landscape of the blind ...

Out of the five continents on this planet, I would dare say that the European one houses the population which is most involved in state politics, even if ever rising numbers of people consciously opt to disengage from anything to do with politicians.

This will have to do with literacy, transparency, democracy, infrastructure but also, or perhaps above all, with geography and history.  Simply a lot of people per square kilometer inevitably debating where one person's freedom ends and another's commences and there with in a constant quest for some form of civilized arbitrage.

The reason we acknowledge with a reasonable peace of mind why present Germany's leading politicians have the influence they do is because today Europe finds itself in a fairly unique mix of modernity and tradition wherein - for the first time in history - a generally informed civilian society is visibly outpacing it's national governors.  

It does not really matter whether we are revolted, annoyed or indifferent with what politicians say or even undertake.  We have become accustomed to enormous amounts of EU top meetings, some more urgent than others, and no one is really objecting the fact that whomever represents more private economic activity or individuals, whichever their national origins, has a higher claim in the decision making especially if we evaluate the very relative significance in a wider world.

The times wherein military uniformed personalities would manage to head or lead large populations into some sort of common belief or hatred appear to have long gone.  I recall a German columnist writing more than a year ago that the only reasons why Europe had not entered into another war were due to that (1) countries do not have the necessary finance and (2) even if they would have, political leaders would not be able to find a sufficient number of young men interested or willing to pick up an uniform and arms and start shooting on their neighbors.

Angela Merkel may very well classify as the most (politically) powerful woman in the world today. And ?  That would probably say more of the population that allow her to act as representative in international gatherings than the personality itself, notwithstanding the typical skills necessary to function within a profession, but then again, as already mentioned, we ordinary civilians tend to be looking in other directions to secure the interests of our immediate surroundings and I will atribute Mutti the benefit of the doubt that has been her intention all along (see a previous post on mastering morality).

Chasing the facts

The common Portuguese word for municipality is autárquia.  The term would come from ancient Greek implying a certain "self-rule" away from any form of central government (and consequently hinting a corresponding level of self-sufficiency).

It's a word that comes up a lot in Portugal thesedays ahead of 29 September when municipal elections will be held and the general population gets to choose whom will hold the public office for their neighbourhood, city or village, all the way up to the presidente.  Unfortunately, any connection with self-rule is unfetchable.

Officially there is a pre-campaign period followed by a campaign period and I am yet to meet someone able to explain the difference.   For several months already political heads show up on billboards, distracting traffic and ironically covering the publicity of struggling retail entrepreneurs votes are asked from, alongside poor catch frases on some promising future.

How sad is it to observe anxious lifelong politicians pondering which tie not to where as they are temporarily forced to stroll through streets and must meet and greet their potential electorate in a poor attempt to get ahead of any threat of losing their job.  This in a country wherein any citizen is well aware that any potential measure of significance is subject to consent by shadowing creditors under a financial and structural reform programme, which has deprived many muncipalities from any (financial) room to manouevre.  Apparently many people feel the upcoming general elections in Germany are of more relevance to their future that those in their immediate surroundings. 

In absence of any ability to introduce substance in locally desired or needed developments, most of the campaigning and debating in the weeks ahead will feature the usual national disputes between the political parties that have been holding the country hostage in contemporary history.

There are some refreshing signs, the foremost being the efforts of Movimento Branco to combat politicians to overcome a law designed to restrict the number of mandates any elected politician can pursue.  Another positive sign is the growing number of non-partisan candidates, generally distinguishing themselves by genuinity and plain honesty, although some are the mere result of the usual inner-party conflicts. 

In an attempt to detect a potential collective sense of modernity, what is also worth mentioning is that the spending of taxpayers' money on this campainging is estimated to be about a fifth of what it was at the previous municipal elections which for an optimist like me could be a sign that politicians are putting their mouth where the money is.

Internationally, there has been a visibly growing number of analists that - build on the philosophies of scholars in political science throughout the past two centuries marked by industrializing and relative civilizing progression -  the return of city states would indeed be the ideal form of a region or municipality to govern itself into prosperity.

From a more pessimistic perspective, perhaps this is an example where enduring signs of Portugal's (imposed) hardshift can be found.  Where, under "normal" circumstances local governments should be (positioned to) gradually increase their autonomy to a more direct and productive benefit of involved populations, while a national government restrains to matters of nationwide interest, the present state of the nation shows the opposite trend.

Although it is still early to think of a post-credit crunch scenario, it is this type of regression that will prolongue a crisis a population is caught in and very possibly widen the gaps with counterparts it would so very much like to see going the other way.

Enlight me, pretty please

It has become a tradition that  throughout the month of August my family retreats just across the border and I drive the 400 km back and forth to the office.  The silence in Portugal's capital and on its motorways dramatically contrasts with the equally traditional vast amount of forest fires I see along the way and on the news, every summer.

Evening news headlines villages normally never heard of, detailing the exact number of firemen, airborn vehicles and the origins of firebrigades on site and updating the number of arrests of suspected incendiators, as if to any common citizen like me those data would be sufficient to gain some perspective on what has exactly been happening.  We get to see desperate civilians with tree-branches, shovels and garden hoses and interviews with firebrigade chiefs too often in too clean uniforms in their moment of fame and ocasional politicians forced to break away from their summer holidays publicly affirming total governmental support.

This particular August sees extra drama with the loss of life in combat by 8 firefighters, portrayed as experienced by fellow combatents even though most of them hardly turned 20 years of age.

It is an equal annual tradition that gradually a debate heats up on the cause and effect of so many wildfires wherein various local authorities point to various central authorities who in turn tend to be courteously evasive if they are in government at present on whether we are all doing a proper job in firefighting and prevention and cry out policy failure if they sit in opposition chairs.  Basic data such as the amount of acres held by the state, the number of fines raised against negligent land owners, the effectively imprisonments of incendiators then become a matter of opinion rather than fact.

The central government has now secured the settlement of firebrigades's gasoline bills and with immediate effect any civil servant who is on call as voluntary fire fighter will no longer need to file for an authorised absence of their normal day job.  That should get things going.  One potentially meaningful measure that has finally set foot is the involvement of military surveillance and I am still awaiting some nationwide video demonstrating how soldiers can shoot terrorist pyromaniacs in their foot from a long distance without a warning, but instead the mayor of Lisbon chose to call upon firefighters to organize a commemorating imitation of the great Chiado fire 25 years ago.

The villagers I meet in and around our holiday retreat, many of them farmers for life, convincently point out how this level of forest fires is a phenomenon of the last 30 years only, and are fairly clear that the principal cause is the abandoning of land previously used for agricultural purposes.

What surprises me is that in none of the media reported political tuned debates I have heard a single person of authority or otherwise pinpointing this, not to mention an economic viable connection with Portugal's comparative advantages in agriculture, wine and many other crops and live stock produce so uniquely mixable with tourism, especially relevant in present times wherein I can even appreciate that environmental sustainability is less of a priority for the time being.

Whilst summer heat evaporates and private and political life returns to business as usual, unfortunately I cannot avoid drawing a straight line with so many other inconclusive nationwide issues which appear to keep on returning in a scaringly similar form than before the last debate, election, state budget, academic year, court case or summer.  Too many people expressing opinions on what someone else should be doing or have done but little, very little, genuine constructive action and all together we hide behind the inevitability of some supranatural disaster.

So unless Portugal turns accessibly flat and forestless and next summer will be extremely humid but without winds, I can already see what August 2014 will look like.  Until then let's discuss second bailouts ..........

Oh my god ! your god, their god, any god ?

I so vividly remember the probably one single time I received a daytime phonecall from my son's kindergarten.  A very serene voice observed that there had been a little accident on a schooltrip and whether I would be available to accompany my son to the hospital. 

Never had I driven this fast through Lisbon and accelerated even more when on the way I commenced wondering why the teacher had to pause when I mentioned it would take me 20 minutes to arrive.  So there he was in the shade of an olive tree and I nearly sensed I could see a piece of brain through the bleeding hole just above his eye.  Apparently he too had accelerated but into a window at the museum.   That's my boy.

Back into the car, onto the hospital.  The dreadful time and distance, finding a parking spot, the waiting room, then surgeory ..... then lots of proud hugs, an ice cream and back home.  Today my son hardly remembers.

It is a story I will carry for a while, with the significance my little harmomious world will atribute to it, a bit like a comment from a former Portuguese president coming out of a specially summoned state council meeting to debate indebted Portugal's political and economic crises.  "If you think we have it bad, look at Syria", he said to journalists.  How true.

These past few days the world gets to see images of a father squeeking his car's breaks in front of a hospital, carrying his child of maybe 2 years old.  Before he enters the emergency entrance the child gets a splash of water over him from a bucket specially placed for such purpose, to get rid of some of the blood and dust.  On the video stream we can still see the father stepping through sweaty doctors and over people sitting or lying on the floor in the hospital's corridors but then images turn away towards a room of about 30 square meters and in there ly about 20 children, lying still, without life in them, dead.  I have seen the vídeo once, but it is printed in my memory.

I miss the point of the now debate on whether Assad's soldiers used chemical agents or not in the attack his minister admitted.  Why on earth (and heaven) is it relevant which weaponry was used on on those people near Damascus this past Wednesday morning ?

Since I do not google from within the US with the chances of having NSC red flagging my home, I guess I am going to have to do some research on that but with great resentment and certainly hope not to find that the essence is tied into the same old treatied logic of weapons of mass distruction.

Remember how 10 years ago, the then US secretary of state stood before the UN to present detailed charts and photos of laboratoria constantly moving around all of Iraq and therewith promoting a case for the US to invade all of Iraq.  If that had not happened, we would not now be entangled in an overly careful chemical diplomatic debate in an attempt to hide western contemporary mea culpa.

Possibly the pretext of chemical weapons, along with any other lean and mean weaponry of the kind, it that it is the only common ground found between large military nations like the US, Russia and China to allow each other to undertake military missions into sovereign countries, legally i.e. internationally tolerated without risking certain nations to stage invasions in sovereign or self-proclaimed independent territories.  I would appreciate the sensitivity of that - along with other well intended multilateral disarmement ventures - but it just does not correspond to what a community can and/or wants and certainly should do when fellow innocent, young human beings are massacred, especially in the region with record UN resolution violations.

It is a tragic and frustrating path, probably the worst in all time history and future, where populations angerly run into and out of that unresolved part of world, from southern Turkey to Egypt, generally always tied into a religion and thus history. 

Only when religion truly seprates from politics, will we see a basis for improvement and that is exactly why political and religious leaders should now sit together, not with the aim for some 5 minute blessing or 48 hour truce, but to interruptedly and professionally work towards an economically viable region seperated not from culture, nor history, but just from religious organizations and whomever claims to be both can get extra international organisational expertise help to make a choice. 

It is a mere matter of re-allocating exisitng resources to a higher priority.  The man made true and apparent blending of religion and politics was not a chemical reaction and can be undone.  If a resolve takes double the time it took countries to organize the effectiveness of the chemical weapons convention, it will have been worth it.

Patriotic bonding and banishing

Several weeks ago, when Mr Gaspar was one of a handful of people who already knew he was close to be the ex-minister of finance for Portugal, he launched two ideas, a bad one and a good one, none of which got too much attention, somewheat to my surprise.  Both ideas, not too favourable to the national banking industry, risk being sidetracked or lost in the present political shuffling or just maybe Mr Gaspar stole the political stage of anxious succeeding governors who will come to re-introduce the proposals as if they were their own.


1. a national development bank sponsered by KFW

On 22 May, what we now know will have been a cordial personal goodbye visit as minister of finance, Mr Gaspar joined Mr Schäuble in Berlin for a one-on-one, where both conferred to the press that in order to combat rising youth unemployment, Germany will make available financial and technical resources to Portuguese entrepreneurs via the KFW, the 1948 Marshall plan founded German development bank, used also in the unification of West and East Germany and 100% owned by the German national and bundeslanden governments, currently presided by the same Mr Schäuble.

This means that any potential young and bright Portuguese business plan will have direct access to two essential componentes traditionally unattainable with any Portuguese bank; (1) financing of at least less about 4 - 5 % and  - not less important (2) a vast know how of (global) markets and industries that may turn a good entrepreneurial idea into something concretely viable. 

For any individual young and new endeavour - whether born out of present misfortune or potential market needs - this is great news.  For a nation as a whole, looking forward to the next 25 years, the idea that any feasible and marketable idea will be contracted and supported at a foreign state institute, possibly with an option to convert part of any loan into a (minor) equity participation, I would find outright scary.

In Spain a very similar plan for the same motives has already been put into motion and Italy is also candidate.  I guess the only reason why Greece is outright excluded by KFW is probably because there people can recognise a Trojan horse from miles away.  Bad idea.

2. government bond buying by the general population

On 21 June, out of his last ECOFIN meeting, Mr Gaspar transpired - in public - his thoughts on how it would be of interest for any common (Portuguese) citizen to become able to directly purchase Portuguese treasury bonds.

Not entirely a new idea in the financing of crises struck sovereignty, but excellent timing all the same. 

Very much contrary to trends in other Euro shaken countries, Portuguese citizens continue accumulating savings at local banks, without really knowing where to invest yet concerned on the Euro-wide debate on the security of cash deposits in struggling banks.  Equally particular to Portuguese society is that people will be quick to massively adhere to a type of nationalistic salvage operation and put their money where their mouths are, against rating agencies and overall international sceptism on Portuguese sovereign feasibility.

Evidently, patriotism these days has a price and a fairly attractive rate of return of around 6 % which treasury bonds do promise, would be essential.  Good idea.

The day after ... the days ahead

There is this story on (in) dispensability which teaches us that any person is as indispendable as the hole that is left in the water after you put your fist.  You can splash all you want and water may turmoil, but with time it will be leveled back where it was with no sign of what was in there.

Mr Paulo Portas is possibly the most experienced politician active as such at present within Portugal, and I do not mean that in a sarcastic manner.  Within the current government he must be the principal defender of less state, less expenses and thus tax, less involvement and thus more room for society.

I am not sure for how long he has been presiding his political party but probably his biggest weakness is not having been able to find a sucessor.  Many people will admit it would not be easy to follow in the footsteps of someone with a surviror's instinct, manoeuvring between formal political procedures while pursuing an idea, a vision for a country.  I suspect he is very much in charge with little effort inside his own party.  There is no question that his way of speech by far outranks the ability of the prime minister, which is particularly handy in times where communciation between a government and a population is not at its best but very necessary.

So when Mr Portas decides to submit his resignation as minister (and in this goverment it does not really matter this is for foreign affairs) he will have had a fair idea of the effects on national politics and financial markets.

This event, formalised by a letter of resignation which has remained declined by the prime minister and president, will be something Mr Portas will be subletly referring to throughout the remaing time this government persists and very outspokenly when we do get to elections, each time policial action or inaction in the months ahead do not align with what is currently being negotiated and will be very roughly and vaguely announced tomorrow to the general public.

And he will be doing so because he and some other government officials, notably the ex-minister of finance, already have a fairly realistic projection of what lies ahead on their protected desktops and have realized that over the next 6 months a population and creditors slowly and gradually will be forced to terms that the present foreign financial support programme will not be enough and Mr Portas simply is not the type that wishes to be associated to a losing team, more than others.

So we will probably see some positive impulses in policies in the months ahead and oppostion parties and civil demonstrators will continue reminding us of this week's events in a constant wave of stay or go.  I'll admit that this week was original and almost entertaining worthy of a couple of lines in political history, but do hope that the present government stays on long enough to give the necessary time to real and thought alternate movements from within society to see through some real changes, the first of which can be a straighforward meaningful cut in government size and waisted time on handling mere political scenarios, egos and speeches.

Personal vs public pride

Well, well, well .... it is fairly unique for a Portuguese person not to have to introduce towards the large world out there what's typical in this country - touristically sold as Europe's best kept secret - and so it appears to be with the top level political doorslamming in the last 3 days. 

The departure of one of the ECOFIN's favorite ministers and the break between the goverment's coalition parties has struck headlines in anything from worldwide tabloids to trading room screens, not to mention the social networking.

Yes, there is food for multi-national thought in the events which bear relevance for what the EU and the IMF should generally expect from countries with whom financial aid packages are agreed. 

In a mere domestic sphere however the Portuguese people are vividly confronted with the visible slow qualitative evolution of its politicians and painfully reminded of the last occassion where a foreign authority had to summon political party heads to communicate with one another, the time of the formalization of the bailout in April 2011.

I perceived it as particularly relevant that the formation of this government had to consist of more than one political party, so that this potential turning point could also bring in some planning and agreement allowing everyone to concentrate on building day-to-day progress instead of wishy washy distracting disputes that seem to haunt parliamentary debates since forever, knowing that political campaign promisses of not looking or blaming the past would have very short life spans.

The problem is not just with who is in government at present, but involves all of the 230 people that got a seat in parliament and another couple of hundred who stand in line with each election or once were there and now get some fee to be original on TV or as an in-house consultant.

Politicians of a handful parties have taken their country and its population hostage, consciously or not. 

The additional €uros each citizen has invested into the national treasury over the past 3 years, accompanied by increasing hardshift in household and business budgets and individual and entrepreneurial lives, risk being instantly converted into higher state debt payments instead of a return of a better day.   It is sad that the risk is nearly entirely dependent on what patronizing politicians choose (not) to do or say.

I do not doubt the general patriotism nor the ability or even willingness of many Portuguese politicans to put in the extra hours their position would require.  I do question their skill and ability to listen and think before they speak.  There are some stringent matters of effectiveness and productivity left unattended nationwide, which is what eventually generated the need for a bailout in the first place.

The events of the past few days show how any attempt for resolve in society can be pulled back by one momentaneous act on a political leadership level and I suspectthis will have discouraging effects on that same society.  I can only hope the attention hungry politicians of the moment find a way to step back, take the remaining cheques of the bailout programme and start making some room for a higher degree of civil involvement in matters of state, timely enough for the next elections.  It is more likely people will see more of the same however.

If you want to recover some of your money in the meantime, there are internet gambling sites where one can bet on horses, poker players and now also whether this government will stay or go.

Eurodigging

Henry Kissinger will have said once that he would not know who to call if he would wanted to discuss an issue with Europe. 

It is almost ironic that the postion the EU created for Catherine Ashton as head of external affairs, which was referred to by José Durrão Barroso as the answer to Kissinger's remark, is now formally stepping up towards the US to demand explanations on the latest hints on spying actions.  This, in parallel to formal diplomatic moves from that same EU's member states Germany and France, presumably for the interest of those countries' own purpose. 

I wonder how the US State Deparment will instruct the NSA to prioritize the thus three pending queries and whether anyone on the receiving end will compare the answers. I suppose the UK should probably also press release it's discontent to avoid people thinking it was not equally surprised.  Then again, maybe Catherine Ashton's service to the union is to avoid yet another potential divide within the EU between spy-worthy and simply uninteresting member states which have nothing to offer to US intelligence (hence Kissinger's view on realpolitik).

At the same time, most, but not all, high representatives of European multilateral and individual institutions  formally get together to welcome Hrvatska as the 28th EU member state, roughly shifting physical borders back to where they once were at the time the Habsburgers were blocking the Turks of the Ottoman empire.  Makes one wonder whether the EU and Croatia are opening or closing a chapter, doesn't it ?

Turkey, co- founder of the Council of Europe (not to be confused with a European Council) and already part of the EU's Customs Union (for most, but not all matters) commenced EU membership negotations at the same time as Croatia, but recently the formal progress on acession was blocked by Germany and Austria and the reason for that would not be the internationally contested occupation of part of Cyprus, although Greek Cypriots are currently contemplating the purpose of EU membership, whereas many within the EU continue doubting the presence of Greece, which in turn continues struggling with the name of Macedonia, while neigbouring Albania and Serbia dispute the independence of Kosovo, next to Europe's youngest revived monarchy Montenegro.  And then we have not even shifted to other corners within the EU, where nations like Scotland, Catalunya or even Flanders and Wallonie appear to want to surface what we thought to have been buried.

With such a scenario, I do not think Europeans have much to fear - in the political arena - of outsider attempts to get some insight information before anything happens.  

As far as inidividuals' cyber rights (and obligations) are concerned, do note how the Council of Europe (that is the outer circle in the diagram below) has been leading the inclusive debate, bringing software developers, all European governments and society in general, together.  That may be a long or even a never ending journey but possibly with a clearer view of the road ahead than for some of the inner-circles  Another nobel peace prize laureate in the make ?

may peace be upon you

My father will have been about my present age, when he was contemplating whether as a family we would move to Iran or if he should opt to continue to business travel back and forth while my sisters and me stayed with my mother.

It will not have been the mere burden of logistics or geographical movement and certainly not the educating challenges of a civilization's heritage and contemporary cultural exposure that will have made my father to opt for the latter.  Rather, he will have wanted to avoid us being "caught" in the then still unforeseeable impact of the regime change about 5 years later, when the Shah fled and Khomeini commenced implementing his revolution as supreme leader. 

Today, I can only guess what my father would have to say on the situation in the Middle East, a region he held close to mind and heart, for so many reasons.  

It will be impossible to grasp his library of thoughts and insights accumulated over several decades in a mere blog's post, but I suspect he will have been busy today with - like most people - closely analising what causes countries to have or not to have their unique individual version of what history is somehow erroneously recording as Arab Spring, given that the first wave of widespread popular protests were induced by young predominantly Persians through the Green Movement in 2009 (and thus not Arabs).

In an inevatable integrating world, my father always had strong pragmatic (not ideologic) reservations on the 20th century western and Soviet pricetagged sponsering and interfering in populations' sovereignty that continues disturbing the region as a whole.  Consequently he admired the most those populations and their rulers who slowly and wisely conquered progress from within, carefully - and not always successfully - balancing ethnic and religious diversity with national patriotism and economic evolution, something impatient Westerners tend to quickly try to categorize as reform or lack thereof.

Last week's not so surprising election of Hassan Rouhani would appear to have come at a welcome time for everyone (with the exception of the democratically defeated hardliners) but in first place for the driven young population confronted with wordly views restrained in a domestic context, followed by a multilaterally desired breakthrough of a nearly constant state of belligerence with neigbouring countries.  It will be the political and real advancements in those two arenas that, only in third place, will come to secure diplomatic progress in Iran's position towards the rest of the world, whether NAM or western aligned countries.

Today, I think my father would advise western countries to pre-occupy themselves with a much needed focus on domestic agendas and to let Iran be itself.  And guess what ... that is how we may very well move to a greater notion of peace and progress then the clumsy damaging poking politics so far.

السلام عليكم

 

 

The (un)known rebel

For as long as there has been urbanization in a planned and organized manner, do civilizations have recourse to some central square or main avenue in their principal cities.  Whether designed or used for market trading or military parading, the political mandate to architects will always have been that the square shall be a central meeting ground for the people.

Times change, certainly much quicker than inner cities do and in the last three years we have learned and seen the names like Habib Bourgiba, Tahrir, the Pearl roundabout, Syntagma, Taksim, Praça dos Três Poderes, Avenida Paulista and of course the Avenida Presidente Vargas in Rio, the city where "liberte, égalité, fraternité was called much before any French revolution, all principal places in major cities over four continents which were temporarily turned into hotspots by civilian crowds  taking their stand against some government (in)action.

Whether a city, country or a nation feels it practises democracy, or not, it is a population's fair right to exercise usufruct of a public property, even if this involves some form of organisation under some specific motive.     Large gatherings do attract and inevitably come to include individuals that do not align with the crowd's beliefs and may threaten the overall good intent.  Then again, is that not equally true for the party politicians generally targetted in the demonstrations ?

On the other hand, a gathering of 1 million people within a country that populates 65, 85 or even 150 million inhabitants does imply that the far majority has other interests and activities and makes one wonder whether who has access to (mobile) internet claims power over who does not. 

Remember Tianamen in 1989?   No internet or widespread use of handheld phones there and then and only in the years beyond did we came to discover what had been gradually driving the student demonstrations and how they organized themselves before and after the then violent crackdown by militar in Bejing while protests spread to other cities in China.  The man that came to be known as the tankman, individually putting a row of 50 invading tanks to a halt, was included in Time Magazine's top 100 of the 20th century most influential people.

So maybe smartphone technology is just a mere instrument to pursue very old aims and perhaps politicians should step up in truly applying the same channels, with genuine and quality two way communciation, so that we can all visibly agree where we disagree. 

 

Islands of resilience

In the past few years we have seen an annoying number of occasions where upon politicians in public office congratulate each other and themselves on the demonstration of courage in the measures they announce and the impact those promise to bear to their electorates and communities.

Whereas I can appreciate long and hard invisible back office work pursuing some belief in a national interest unlikely to be met with gratitude by large populations unaware of some longer term impact, to associate any such actions as courage is widely exagerated, unless there might be some threat to life or professional integrity, which is hardly the case in most civilized and democratic societies.

I would not want to think of Edward Snowden as hero, nor as a traitor but will grant his action to disclose the PRISM programme as courageous in a very modern sense.  I see truth in the apparent comfortable private life and promissing professional career he had when he made his individual choice to discontinue upholding the code of conduct he will have been bound by, especially as he will have been (made) timely aware of the plausible consequences.  No more island feeling for him.

Frankly I see no motive for anyone to be shocked either by taking note of some government controlled intelligence set up, screening and monitoring communications and when this is in the USA also see no reason for surprise that private entreprises are tied in, but then again I am fortunate enough to live and work in an environment of relative democracy, transparency and justice in comparison with most other people on this planet.  After all, in the US and certainly not in Europe I think we would now not want to debate on how governments should come to spend more on cyber intelligence, exlusively paid for by public means.

That does not withstand that any organisation, public or private, should have their act together at all times and if caught and challenged, that will just be another tough bite to take on board while seeking evolution otherwise.

I recall Jon Stewart's show sarcasticly analysing what one can do in one's virtual life after some US governor had been caught browsing porn sites on the internet.  One proposed solution was to outsmart whomever whistleblows you or, my preferred option, just become a better person in real life as well and then you will have nothing to worry about.

Ain't no mountain high enough

Back in history, the times we now like to qualify as romantic and poetic, it was normal that notable and honourable men (and women) of influence, owners of titles, land and businesses would be the ones to push a nation's prosperity.  In those times it will have been perceived as normal or necessary that the engagement of trade and business would be paired with affairs of state, varying from outright wars to mutually convenient marriages. 

If there is one thing that has influenced the course of history it is the level of information populations (demand to) receive, have access to and consequently to a certain degree will also digest and act upon, whether to serve individual purposes or a perceived wider common good in less or more visible manners.  The disclosures on the US' NSA's Prism programme, triggered by an apparent normal, average person such as Edward Snowden are early indicators that over the 21st century the tide and value of information flows is actually turning in the opposite direction from population to government.  How historic is that ?

This past weekend there was another Bilderberg event and for the first time since the 50's there will be press statements as well as parallel organized popular protest alongside. I regard the Bilderberg meetings as inspiring or even hopefull.  The gatherings do not bear the inherited exclusivity like the mostly royal Serafimorden, nor the lifelong rituals surrounding franchised freemasonry, which is exactly what places the Bilderberg group in a consistently forward looking balance that will maintain it as meaningful and thus secure its existence.

There are leaders and leaders and it makes perfect sense there is a thought and traditional organization that selects invitees to listen to and opinion with, in function of what is happening in the world albeit from a restricted perspective, especially with the Europe and the US in the status they are at, vis-à-vis the rest of the world.  No need to always roundtable hiarchies or to (democratically) explain who, where, what and why.  Just listen and be heard to before each goes back to her/his daily responsabilities.

Politicians, businesses and, in today's world, even private individuals, organized or not, have more instruments at hand to find or challenge common grounds than they can handle.  Maybe one day "bilderberging" will show up in Oxford's dictionary not too far from "blogging" or "browsing" but until such day I wish the few hundred carefully picked participants each year all the help and wisdom they can get.

Avenida de amoR

There is truth in what Paul Krugman touched upon in his post Nightmare in Portugal in that the Financial Times tends to portray a sad dramatic view of Portugal often illustrated with some cliché photo of a dunkey or old-man-on-bench-in-village. 

In this post Krugman relays to a recent article from Peter Wise, FT's longtime correspondent in Lisbon who chose to reflect on the present crisis through a circumscription of abandoned glory at the Avenida de Roma .............. my Avenida de Roma, the street I have been living in for 15 years as per tomorrow, the day my then wife and I got married  (female friends thought it was romantic, male friends called me stupid, but that was indeed 15 years ago).


Peter Wise happens to reside just around the corner from Avenida de Roma and whereas I can visualize his inspiration for the article when taking a stroll down the street on any Sunday afternoon today in comparison with "the good old days", there is much more than meets the eye, which is so very true for all of Portugal. 

We have seen old fashioned and trendy stores, family operated or multinational owned come and go over the years and I have always considered the "customer will come to us" attitude, whether in retail or otherwise, as an unsustainable threat, especially because it is so deep rooted in Portuguese commerce.

But, like Krugman hints, what is important is how we go about turning the tide. So here's another link; http://www.avenidaderoma.com/blog/ announcing an entertaining shopping night tomorrow, in a genuine attempt to remind a population on what life was like before a suburban sealed shoppingcentre tsunami invaded Portugal.

More importantly, the initiative is the result of a hands-on joint effort and investment by a varied mix of private business owners with little input from the public sector, seeking to undertake its share in micro-economics and therewith not relying too much on some possible future macro-economic policy change a government may or may not bring.

To be continued.

Send in the clowns

I could not have been more off, from my prediction on Portugal's Prime Minister's latest nation address.  What I had hoped or expected to be a speech with a realistic and relatively forward looking tone from the top, demonstrating some recognition for the enormous evolution a population has gone through in terms of streetwise economics in over a bit more than two turbelent years, turned out to be a fairly predictable shopping list of plausible measures intended to inevatably take effect in the very near future.  

In a way I felt sorry for Pedro Passos Coelho, as he reminded me of the periodic act I need to go through at home, trying to establish the family's grocery desires for the immediate following weeks, while proclaiming my uneducated view on a need for healthier habits, before I rush out the door to execute a shopping list, hesitating back and forth between substitute products in an attempt to satisfy everyone.

As a consequence the ingredientes the prime minister intends to introduce into the government kitchen over the near future are being met with more of the same reactive protest, although the temparature does appear to be rising.

Then the population is fed with a supposedly confidential "conselho de estado", summonable only by the president who has been making public references to religion and myths in assocation with a search for much needed economic progress.

Much less visible is the simultaneous hard and relatively succesful work of (political) teams roadshowing amongst priveleged potential foreign private and sovereing investment funds in long term Portuguese treasury bonds. 

What strikes me as poor is that fairly publicly available data and indicators on economic and structural reform projections and scenarios a government gathers, are left out of the nation's messages towards the general public at home.  Portuguese households and the many small business GDP drivers have demonstrated a fierce climb on the learning curve and shown to be ready to take an as close as possible worst case scenario on board in their decision making.

So when leading politicians end up being referred to as clowns, before seeking any prosecution they may want to remember that in any circus the entry of clowns is an essential role in order to distract the audience of some unforeseen incident in the arena.  The only difference with current politicians is that, none of us feel entertained and the attempted distraction is thus not working.

and the winning number is ....

This Friday at 20:00 (GMT+0) the Portuguese population will be confronted with yet another speech from its prime minister.  

This will not be just another speech. 

We have seen numerous ones, especially the last 2-3 years, wherein a political leader attempts to compensate the even larger number of less formal or less legitimate debates, commentaries or even outright protests that spread so easily in the true public domain.

This time it will be different and I am not referring to any sudden improvement in a prime minister's vocal ability or presentation skills and not even the form or choice of words that would generally be the only distinction between politicians that claim to be on opposite sides.

Of course (although I still miss the necessity) we will once again be introduced to the impredictable width of an international crises, the inherited weight of previous governors, the indisputable distance with Greece and the inevitable contract with creditors.  We will also hear the announcement of some measures, nothing we have not really heard or seen before, including some now politically popular growth stimulus speeches.

But with that out of the way, for the first time since quite a few years and too many speeches, we will finally hear, or at least be allowed to interpret, an actual timeline.  This is of the utmost essence.  Not just for any common citizen or business person but also for policitians themselves, democratically elected, inside our outside governments or political parties.

For the first time a population and the politicians it has brought forth will come to terms with the extent or price of underestimated wrongdoings in the past and the effects it has on generations. 

Remember how in the not too far past, we would often try any situation on the basis of a worst case scenario ?  Well, in tomorrow's speech it is likely we will probably be led to a best case scenario.

And the winning number will be ...25 ... nothing less than 25 years to arrive at a reasonable level playing field, alongside what currently are considered partner jurisdictions and supra-national entities.

With this time scale, it is fairly irrelevant whether one agrees with the underlying economic projections or not.  What is important is that the notion of the time associated to a present forward looking view, will allow or even force a change of speech and - more importantly - thought and eventually action, into some serious out of the box concepts and it is then that we are really setting a stage for sustainable progress.

Monday morning quarterbacking

"We're not just Monday morning quarterbacking here" said one the Foxnews presentators last Friday night while he and his team were tv news show styling and profiling through the paralising minutes which seemed like hours ahead of the capture of the boy probably guilty of attempting to terrorize Bostoners along with many people in other places.

It was a while since I last spend some time watching American news channels, but this past Friday night I sought to switch from the translated coverage on my local newschannel to get as close to the source as possible.

Once again (as observed in an earlier post "La donna é mobile" in respect of hurricane Sandy) it is impressive to observe how an apparatus of professional and civil human and technological resources is put into action, along with all the less visible back up intelligence.

After such a collective effort, involving pretty much everyone inside a (digital) community, it is only natural the quick conclusion is shared and celebrated.  It fascinates me, however, that the celebration drives people into the street to shout out the name of their country.  I do not recall observing similar reactions at, for instance, the Madrid or London subway bombings or the Oslo /Utoya attack.

In another previous post ("Peace of mind") ahead of the nobel peace prize awarding, I noted the increasing threat to civilized democratic and generally free societies, coming from apparent but anything but common individuals living amongst us. 

Of course at times like these, we are angered and it is only natural that we try to put a face on an enemy hidden amongst us. 

Looking forward, I am not sure how relevant it will be for this threatening trend whether such "persons" are self-tutored anti-social internetnerds or brainwashed trainees produced on site by some terrorist group. 

All sources need to be dealt with in an as preventive manner possible.  Wherever a case is turned into something more, hinting or even insisting national populations stand on two opposite sides of a potential wider conflict, that would appear to be Monday morning quarterbacking and may very well keep the popular tensity more alive than need be.  But then again, I have never fully understood American football.

Monophonic monopoly

When I started this blog less than a year ago, I promissed myself to stay away from the wishy washy domestic politics that every country suffers from and especially marks the day-to-day in a small country like Portugal. 

In early June last year I observed how after financial analists, investors, economists and politicians, historians came up to the media stage to bring their explanations as to what would have gone wrong in western free market economies and the therewith associated public finances.

Now, in Portugal, we see a range of commentators, some more politically driven than others, at more or less patronizing tones, comparing the country's status and political acts or lack thereof with simple family households.  All this in response to the paralised non-communication between the country's largest two political parties, both signatories to the foreign financial adjustment programme, one in government, the other eagerly wanting to be.  The mudthrowing tone a viewer is confronted with compares to the type of easy scripted frases one can equally find on the next tv channel albeit in the shape of soap series.

So now commentators feel a need to get back to basics and illustrate on national television how when a couple borrows money, both will need to consent to the repayment conditions and if in financial dificulty will need to commit and undertake changes in spending habits.

Duhhh.

This is not about financial and operational restructuring, sustainable welfare, not to mention a search for long term economic growth.  What a population is stuck with is the same sad and even scary politically monopolized situation it was confronted with in 2011 when the inability of both these political parties predictably drove the country into having to have to contract a bailout. 

Apparently one item both these political parties do agree upon is a roughtly € 130 million the government has reserved for all parties to run their campaigns in 2013, that is the money parties "need" to "communicate" to a population why they are the best positioned to come to govern the country.

I would suggest Portugal exports a majority of political players to Bollywood.  Everbody wins.

The sun will rise in the morning

While the Portuguese government dropped an icecold decree whereby with immediate effect all public spending intentions are to be frozen, causing a heavy rain of purchase orders pouring in from hospitals, schools, the militar and courts nationwide, the general population in Portugal finally has a meteorological promise of the type of enduring sunny warm wheather ahead that we would be used to at this time of year. 

So we will have lots of things to talk about and to escape to this weekend.

For most of Portugal, long periods of cloudy grey and wet wheather just do not belong and people will find themselves out of place.  For many Portuguese, it is however too familiar ground that a government ruling is reacted upon by waves of complaints against what is nearly (but not entirely)perceived as a dictatorial act by a government, generally by people who have not even read through the details of the decree.  Theatrically panicking state employees show up in tv and radio interviews detailing lack of pens, toiletpaper, cleaning material and a whole variety of missing consumables that will serve to explain a fall in the quality of service to the general public in the immediate future and an paralisation of an entire country.

Give me a break. 

For what it's worth, the far most item that commonly shows in surveys amongst foreign executives and managers working in Portugal on their views of Portuguese national colleagues is that decisions are frequently postponed and when eventually made, predominantly driven by emotion.

In this is where I find one explanation for the sudden expenditure freeze, or rather an announcement thereto (not to mention a range of other causes).  In other words, it is about time that some active measures are taken instead of the contínuos appointment of projects and commissions studying feasibility plans to one day determine the amount of spending that might be avoidable, which eventually would also result in lack of paper but then at ATM's nationwide.

How about that wheather hm ?

Why tax ?

My father always tought me to remember that "one thing is knowing something, a totally other is explaining it to someone else".  Equipped with that essential truth, this Friday, I nervously headed for an early morning presentation with the mission to explain what the profession of a tax consultant entails. 

My audience consisted of a curiousity driven crowd of 30 individuals which may very well harbour a future computer wizard, media giant, entrepreneur, a judge or even some sort of politician marking the 21st century, but above all one thing they will all have in common is the genuine Jesuit philisophy large parts of the world are vividly (re-)discovering with the acts and words of a new Sumo Pontifice in Rome.

The crowd in question was the class of my 7 year old son. How inspiring it is to spend some classtime with those that are so much in the centre of matters, albeit unconsciously for the present wrong reasons and unaffected by the corrupted thrives of those that claim decisonmaking power in today's small world.

In the back of my head I sought to store the severe drawback Portugal would see that day on the constitutional test of a struggling goverment's budgetting as well as the wordlwide releases on agressive (offshore) tax planning that had been coming to the surface throughout the week.

It was exciting to see 20 hands in the air upon the question "who knows what taxes are?" and quite a few prompt responses on what happens with the money we pay to a shop owner .  Particularly interesting was the pausing silence on the question "so why must we pay taxes?".

Lots of Robin Hoods in the make. There is a future, after all.

The Cyprus Problem

Obviously Paul Krugman did not read my blog when I posted "Pandora's Oasis", just before Cyprus took over the EU Presidency last year, otherwise it would have been evident to him and everybody else that about 8 months later the UK would be sending a military plane with € 1 million in notes to the potential cashless British expatriate population........

Seriously, I would like to hope that when EU leading politicians, by now infamous for their indecision and over prudence, submit an offer to Cyprus to cut bank deposits by 10 or more points as a solidarity contribution, they would have contemplated the plausible popular consequences as well as a reaction from Russian presidents and prime-ministers and their fellow stakeholders.

I dug up a booklet from my library, with the title "The Cyprus Problem", something I picked up from what was once a home on the east coast of the island, below the green line. A fascinating spot, next to a UN post, from where visitors could binocular in the direction of Varosha, a ghost town which once would have housed over 15000 Greek Cypriots, an (other) unresolved diplomatic dispute, not without bloodshed, dating from well before 1974, the actual time of a Turkish invasion.

This booklet, published may be 20 years ago, with no author identified, makes the case that the only way for The Problem is for both Greece and Turkey to be outside any European (economic) Community and inside some sort of east Mediterranean Confederation.

So now Cyprus has another, more contemporary problem on its hands. Or just maybe it has an opportunity.

Habemos resolutos politicum!

Whether one is catholic, religious or an atheist, inevitably there is inspiration to be found when over a hundred experienced high level leaders of the same consecration get together for a common purpose, in this case the college of cardinals to elect a new sumo pontífice to head the Holy See.

The history, the ceremony, the hierarchy, even degrees of mystery surrounding or to some extent haunting one of the world's oldest organizations.  The only handful of people which challenge it's fundamentals and objectives are overwhelmed by the enthusiasm of large numbers of admirers and followers. 

I think it was Christine Lagarde a couple of months ago, who suggested that European heads of state should get together in the same room and only be allowed to leave after they agreed upon a resolve for Europe's financial/economic/social and political dip.

I would take it one step further.

The former politicians who once were elected into office and now occassionally add on the disputes where political paths ahead should lie, knowing they no longer have a hand in governance that could hold them liable, they too should be obliged to either get into the room or take a vowe of silence and retreat to some sort of monastic life. 

All of them, on bread and water, disconnected from outside influences, inside a sealed room with nothing else to stare at than a painting of judgement day, contemplating and reflecting on the true essence of wrong and right, rather than left and right, with no possibility to abstain from the road in front of us.  The general public will then decide to which extent they want to stand in the rain or sit at home awaiting white smoke hinting a solution or indeed choose to be indifferent while community life will move on.

At present, it is certainly tempting to continue to see politicians come and go and the thought they will have a role for the rest of the (public) life they chose is potentially scary or maybe just annoying.  Then again, faced with the impossibility to one day simply abandon public office and therewith their share of responsibility just might be a good enough barrier for anyone to choose a career in politically serving the general public.

Not like

I vividly remember one of the first tv documentaries that sought to portray the day-to-day life in Portugal under a bail-out regime, broadcasted at a late hour, well after prime time.

This will have been in early 2011 and whereas one could argue that the preceding nearly 3 full years of what was then still regarded a financial crisis, in itself would provide sufficient material for in.depth reports, it is rather proper to Portugal that the country first needs to formalise and document the fact that a crisis had set and that was the signing of the memorandum of understanding by government and oppostion political parties on the domestic end and the creditors of IMF, EU and ECB, referred to as troika.

At the time, most people still hardly had a notion of what national austerity meant or would come to imply for them and their surroundings and the general image a population had of "troika" was what came as something being domestically disputed inside and in front of the Greek parliament.  The general concern,, in Portugal, then was whether what was referred to as crisis would persists for 2 or 3 years.

In this documentary, somewhere in a village, a woman explained how on a regular basis she would sneak out of her house in the middle of the night in order to go and wash the clothes of her two teenager daughters in a nearby river.  She had a washing machine at home but not the cash-flow to operate it.  Teenage daughters will need their favourite clothes every day and certainly do not need a feeling of embarresement.  I was very impressed and disturbed with seeing a pragmatic person, weakened but determant to safeguard her children from the distress of some outside world.

Two years later, this past Saturday, an estimated 10 % of the population adhered to a social networked invitation to parade in various cities country wide with quite a "not like" list against the government, politicians, policies or the lack of policies, the troika committee and even against some of the countries that tend to have a greater weight in international organizations.

Amongst the demonstrants there will have been quite a few people with tragic stories to tell and, again, I was impressed, more so by the country wide organization, the size and particularly the variety of participants, young and old, employed or not, educated or not, room for some carnavalestic irony, all wrapped in the peaceful almost patriotic manner that has indeed distinguished the Portuguese popular protesting in the past months.

The big question on "what's next" remains and I believe it would be wrong to suggest people would look for some sort of return to medieval forms of popular hangings or jubelations under some king's balcony on a central square.  It would be naive to expect any concrete proposals from a revolted population towards an office holding government.

It will be a matter of time, years, maybe just months, for the perceived intrusions and intruders of what were reasonably comfortable but above all self-controlled lives, to be named and to be attributed a common unique identification and at that point some form of organized civil movements, political or not, will appear, also in Portugal.

Surely and not that slowly it is becoming rather evident that private individuals, occassionally grouped or not, do learn faster than governments do and that says something about the path ahead.

Leave the gun, take the cannelloni

So most of the developed world desired stability in Italy and feel their prayers remained unanswered.  What about the Italians themselves ?

In contemporary history, few countries have had an impact on quotidian life as much a Italy.  That is probably not despite but rather due to the many military, political and therewith cultural influences the country has seen with foreign rulers, from north, east, south and west, many of which could be classified as internal conflicts.

Italy is a country that could but does not, unlike some of its fellow southern neighbours, rely on a glorious inheretance of past civilizations to defend its place in the present world.  Beyond the Roman empire, what makes up Italy, for a bit more than a century now, has never been a world dominant power whether economic, military or political, but has always made its mark in a fairly charismatic mix of progressivism and traditional mediterranean catholic life, which has given it its statute in the world, probably more so through private enterprise than by political role playing.

I am too impressed with the re-appearance of Silvio Berlusconi and even more so with the low score of Mario Monti. I am too more than just entertained with Beppe Grillo and not surprised with the relative rise of Pier Luigi Bersanni. 

However, it bothers me, substantially in fact, that such an evident variety of political choices embraced by an educated electorate is now being classified, mostly by those on the outside looking in, as messy, noisy, unstable, etc.  Something is very wrong if we should be afraid of a modern country facing political debate on maybe just about every issue, via democratically elected agents.

Perhaps one way to simplify future exposure to potential governamental deadlocks could be to significantly reduce the amount of political seats, procedures and issues and it would fit well into current politics anywhere in a civilized world that a country like Italy would be the first to take that step.

Pax Atlantis ?

I am afraid I sense quite some similarities between Beyoncé's performance at the re-inaugarution of President Obama and the official bi(multi)-lateral announcement of an US-EU free trade economy.

In what meets the eye (or reaches the ear), there is momentum, ceremony,  history, tradition, beauty, power, I would even say something personal for the central role players, all before a silent yet genuine excited audience.  

At noon on 21 January in Washington D.C., I doubt if it mattered for the saluting military or the general standing public that Beyoncé chose to sing the national anthem in playback. 

However, where a choir of 27 heads of state, with a special duet for the president of the European Council and Commission on one side of the Atlantic and shortly therafter the US president on the other side, speak with one voice on future free trans-atlantic trade, the many cheering enterpreneurs may want to hold onto their applause after we have been able to verify the rehearsed political announcement with the "live" version.

The current levels of tariffs and duties on trans-atlantic trade are not that high compared to what's practised with other regions in the world.  Approximately two thirds of current movements of goods are between affiliated companies.  Even the non-tariff measures as far those have been marked by WTO standards are fairly transparent and identifiable for any enterpreneur or inventor.

So it does come down to how willingly (and able) parties are to go beyond the traditional barriers to trade, freedom of establishment, trademarking and (government) sponsered R&D.  In that respect, once we come down to the "details", we should expect quite a bit of mudthrowing in and out of arbitral courts, not to mention each others monetary and fiscal policies, including the bi-lateral relationships with emerging countries, which just maybe, the intended agreement is all about.

We will be hearing the same politically composed song a trillion times in the next 2-3 years on the value of transatlantic trade, FDI-flows, intangibles and technology and the sum of the joint economies in nominal GDP terms versus other regions in the world, along with the roots and causes of political and military aliances.

For the true entrepreneur this will just be another opportunity to apply her/his skill more than potential competitors do, which after all is what fair and free market trade and value is all about.  It would fit the political performers of the world's most advanced nations well to just step backstage and let businesses themselves truly evolve freely and maybe get some taxrebates in exchange for less government time.

La questione Romana

Religion, always a sensitive issue, whether it concerns a single person or entire populations and especially where it appears to blend - naturally or not - with other widespread issues such a politics, finance or media. 

Ever since the Holy See has been treatied into the Vatican State (less than 100 years ago), it would appear that, paradoxly enough, the Roman Catholic Church definitly ceased being the party to international politics it was over so many centuries and thus commenced being fairly exclusively dedicated to the human element of religion, a mission that resulted in the institutionalization of many foundations and charities, including the Banco or Instituto per le Opere Religione in the midst of world war II, in addition to, of course, the supremacy role it amost always has held towards thousands of international religous orders.  An intriguing organization, loved, admired, envied by many.

No one will ever know for certain why Joseph Ratzinger decided to step down as Pope as much as we really know what made him sought to become elected Sumo Pontifice by the College of Cardinals.  The fact that he (ambitiously) chose to succeed Pope Benedict XV should tell us something. 

Is it a step of (inevitable) modernity, like many people would like to believe, that there will be a different and more popular and / or active role for the Holy See in a more individualistic yet inter-connected world ? I am not convinced this would require a Prada cased I-phoning Clooney or Obama look-alike, jogging over the Via della Conciliazone, every morning. 

Or could there be chrystalising retrocessive effects of relative recent history as we see so many jurisctions and institutions go through these days ?  Let's face it, the Vatican has not been immune to various scandals, moral or worse, some more transparently overcome than others.  Then again, part of what makes the Holy See the institute it is, has been its ability to overcome many external and internal threats.

I wonder how many Wi-Fi spots there are at Monte Cassino for whom wants to keep a silent track of what's next.

That clinking, clanking sound ....

I am impressed.  Whereas 36 hours ago the chances of top consent at the EU's budget negotations were as tight as the tubes of Brussels' landmark Atomium, out came what appears to be a fairly intelligent set of objectives for the next 7,5 years.

In a nutshell, the agreement establishes that with less central spending at the level of EU institutions, growth should be achieved through a continued effort to remove the barriers to cross border trade, free business establishment and private entrepreneurial innovation. 

This is a clear return to the fundamentals of the European Economic Community before it converted into a more political union after the Maastricht Treaty in the heydays of what we now know were the too glorious and unrestricted 90's, followed by the political deterioration we have seen over the past 5 years.

This back to basics angle then also means revisiting the EU's pan-European role towards the east and south and seeking a level playing field or maybe even some new members across the Meditteranean and the Black Sea, wherein particularly those member states with current economic and political difficulties could and should come to play a speerheading role, so that the EU as a whole can concentrate on intensifying relations with the US, China, Japan and Latin America.

It is almost ironic that the budget agreed by the heads of 27 governments must now confront the European Parliament who were handed the voting power over it in with the Lisbon Treaty in 2007 and apparently we can expect quite a bit of disputing over several months. 

Perhaps the members of euro-parliament should browse and travel a bit further than their little golden triangle of Brussels, Strassbourg and their hometown, to learn how much wiser the general population has become in the meantime, in particular in what concerns the moneyflow.  It may even get them re-elected in 2014. 

"More Europe" never meant more money shifted to European institutions, ladies and gentlemen.

That clinking, clanking sound; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkRIbUT6u7Q

Be careful what you wish for ....

If it is true that in civil(ized) societies, the general population determines the level of democracy and therewith takes ownership of the(ir) pace of development, then, some societies or countries simply need or allow (their) politicians more than others do in order to progress.

Portugal's government has - rightfully - been jubilating a win, mostly over the distrust of credit rating agencies, with the high demand for a recent medium term sovereign debt issue, since it came under the financial assistance of the IMF/EU/ECB.  Yes there are plenty of circumstancial factors, a stage set by the ECB, a script designed by the aforementioned institutions but that need not withdraw the momentum for the actors that took the stage and thus the applause from most stakeholders and critics.  No oscar nominees here, however.

Then again, there is something quite trivial about celebrating the increase of debt, unless the debtor holds a proven track record demonstrating financial skill and/or economic vision. 

With this financial relief the government of a now over 120% of GDP indebted Portugal can (and is) carefully proclaiming a potential return to where the country financially and economically was a couple of years ago in particular in what concerns a surviving banking system now enabled to again partner up with private enterprise.  Time for a survey amongst companies, big or small, to share their experiences with their bank branch managers on the meaning and price of partnering up

The prime minister now also sees opportunity to, once again, appeal for EU structural aid (very different from the current conditioned lending......) to promote a missing railway connection with Spain, boost domestic agriculture, ahead of this Thursday's EU budget negotiations, while the Minister of Economy promises to question EU restraints on low income tax rates, the Minister for Foreign Affairs is roadshowing export and tourism markets, the Minister for Interior is promoting privatizations, the Minsiter of Justice is making every effort to arrive at a level playing field in commercial and civil law, Ministers of Health and Education are genuinly looking for economies of scale and efficiency.

So much political activity, one would wonder whether there is any real room for private initiative exclusively by private enterprises or the general population, other than moving elsewhere, which actually also has already been suggested by the prime minister. 

Then again, maybe private business owners or individuals simply do not want to the initiative and prefer to be led by their governors and that is, of course, a populations's own right.  A rather expensive long term option, tough.  At least the future grandchildren of the Minister of Finance can say that grandpa told you so.

Boys with serious toys

I am fascinated by the (re-)current arms control debate in the United States. 

One particular aspect which distinguishes the present discussion from previous ones is that it takes place well beyond the US homeland. To a great extent that will be due to the media streamed world we live in, but there is more.  

There is nothing new to the tendencies in what the US and other western countries refer to as emerging young and old nations, in grasping occasions to return criticism on how a civil society should best be run.  New is, a widespread and fairly factual view that the US is gradually ceasing its role as world donimant power, be it in economics, finance, science which appears to serve as a pretext to be (dis)allowed to lecture others.   New is, the very remote chance of (the need for) any future US (led) military invasion or rescue operation as we have seen over the past 100 years.

I can understand that after the killing at a school in a small town, people want to seek a total and full abolishment of guns, as much as they would want to run to the nearest armsdepot and get everybody at home a piece of weaponry and a shooting course on top and argue the same at the next parents' meeting at school.  Both arguments would seek to pursue the same objective to avoid such tragedies from happening again.

My tendency would be similar to most Europeans and consider the so widespread practised principle of a freedom to carry a weapon as dangerous as a trigger on a loaded weapon itself.   In Europe we hunt, for food or sports, we have regions where the chances of neighbouring revolt deeply rooted in micro-cultures are much higher than what the general population would wish for.  None of this though has brought societies to push political parties to bring a more popular access to arms into the public debate.

I often argue that in traffic - in most of Europe - we see true democracy, wherein people in inidividual cars constantly make their own rules as and when and on the spot, in speed, parking, by-passing, pushing and pulling on public roads, supported with all the engine power and devices a car owner financially can or wants to spend, to combat the just or unjust manners of law enforcement. 

It's a cultural thing, most car and gun owners will aspire.  And because it's attributable to culture it cannot be and maybe even should not be entirely explained.  Maybe, possibly, or most likely it's also a male thing and will thus prevail as long as there are sufficient females to be impressed by the size and power of our four wheeled or hand held canons.

So it does come down to how cultivated the canon owner is and in that respect there are still a lot of bridges to cross.  If we are to evolve I would expect the active initiative to consistently lie with those who produce and promote the machinery and not at all with those who - consciencly or not - make wrong use of the priviliges. 

Where are we now ?

It has been less than 2 months after Portugal thought to impress Mrs Merkel with top and wide and arguably excessive security on her official visit - with no official agenda - accompanied by a plane full of representatives of German corporations who conferred on the experience and benefits of a Berufsausbildungssystem. 

Today the Troika delegation which has been monitoring and advising Portugal on a sustaintable way forward to what local politicians call the end of a tunnel, presented an extensive report on ways and needs to cut on public spending, and in particular on .... indeed .... security forces and public education. 

I am late and still sceptical in the rows conspiracy theorists commenced formating about a year ago and probably also just too much of an optimist or an outsider to look negatively upon entries of non-sovoreign forces into what ceased being mere domestic issues quite a while ago.  I have to admit though that the apparent swiftness in action is intriguing and in contrast to what's been done locally so far.  I can also understand that the majority of the Portuguese population will take on David Bowie's advise and keep their fingers crossed any way, just in case.