When in the midst of 2010, due to an imminent threat for a bailout, the word Portugal showed up much more than usual in newsstreams in the four corners of the world, that was an occasion for several overseas friends and fellows to get back in touch with me to curiously certify whether the economic and social situation really was a bad as reported.
In an attempt to picture the events to a distant outsider, I sought comparison of another drastic event in world news earlier that year, which was the earthquacke in Haiti. Clearly with no intent to compare the devastation and misfortune to a population, I sought to illustrate that if (public) finance crises, like earthquackes are both constantly monitored in known risk areas, what makes every difference to people's lives is the ability of a government led action to respond when disaster does indeed hit.
In the first 48 hours after the Haiti earthquacke nearly no foreign aid had came in because of the uncontrolled responsiveness of the local authorities. And so it was in Portugal, plain panic as if some alien force was about to strike, drove politicians, institutions, private enterprise and the general public in all kinds of opposite directions, generating a nationwide paralisation, which was exactly the last thing the country needed.
I have to admit I admire, envy, the apparent serene determined manner in which the entire United States put in a motion a preventive plan to fence against the threat of approaching hurricane Sandy. Any person from some woodpanel manufacturer pulling in extra workers to accelerate production and distribution to a functioning top down, bottom up alert and civil aid system no to mention the policing of temporarily abandoned properties .... under the circumstances it just seems to work and whatever the real extent of the disaster, in a matter of days a nation will move on with a general feeling that they have done as much as was possible to mitigate a common threat.
It is that practical spirit that will confine a disaster to its minimum potential. I would not want to imagine the aftermath without it.
When public interest and knowledge towards tropical storms evolved, we substituted scientific and technical locators with female names, by the example of what heroic (male) seafarers had been doing for centuries. Somehow it would seem that for whom is in an unavoidable hitspot for surrounding stormy wheather, the idea that what's imminent is a female figure will make it easier to cope.
So I would suggest that we substitute the range of technical financial and political terminology that crises hit populations have to have come to read about daily, with sweet or passionate female names and that we do so in the early stage, before a tropical storm either evaporates or turns into a hurricane category 1 - 5.
Imagine if in 1996 Spain would have baptized its accelarating property development sector with, say "Carmen" or "Mercedes" than we would all know in 2003 - when private lending vs per capita income was reaching concerning high's- and again in 2008 when bank capitalization was becoming worrysome low, then in 2012 we would all know "she" was now a vibrant teenager on her way of becoming a grown woman with a mind of her own. Who knows, we may get tempted to have her stick around for a long love hate relationship or just maybe shut the door in her face any given day.
2012-10-30
2012-10-29
Whom says "B", is really saying "A"
So after a relatively tough but not so very long journey of IMF/EU/ECB close guided austerity which has passed the milestone of the severest state budget proposal in recent history in terms of tax collection (and not expense cutting), Portugal's prime minister has now launched the suggestion that the fundamentals of the financial assistance programme should be revised, not be understood as a renegotiation.
This idea arose on the rather informal occasion of what formally was not an act of government and happened to involve the members of parliament of the two governing political parties, thus exlcuding the 4 or 5 opposition parties.
Mr Passos Coelho is certainly not as new to domestic politics as he is to international institutional shadowed governance and my guess is that he should have a fair idea, by now, of when and what to message in his current position.
On a mere national level, one could argue that this is just another politician starting to have to think of re-election. From an interantional perspective, I suspect the prime minister's announcement was previewed, pre-authorized and planned by Portugal's foreign creditors, most of which must constantly consider the contagious effects within an Eurozone.
This would imply that the Portuguese government, the political parties which created it, the IMF, the EU and the ECB all have finally come to terms that the austerity package as a combination of sovereign financial aid with structural reforms as it was agreed and implemented in the spring of 2011 will not work or, worse, is seriously threathened with adverse effects.
There's a popular quote which more or less dictates that people, and thus societies and the governments they produce, will cause change either when they realistically want to or when they simply have to and in Portugal's case it has arrived to the latter.
While they will be composing plan B on some serious cuts in state apparatus for submission to creditors, I wonder if Mr Passos Coelho and his political followers are conscient whether in fact they will be surrendering towards the very first intentions of a plan A, carefully kept in a drawer in some foreign desk.
For sake of the Portuguese population I hope that that desk belongs to someone of good faith and in search of synergies in cross border terms. I am not so sure that desk houses at institutions like the IMF, the EU or the ECB, however.
This idea arose on the rather informal occasion of what formally was not an act of government and happened to involve the members of parliament of the two governing political parties, thus exlcuding the 4 or 5 opposition parties.
Mr Passos Coelho is certainly not as new to domestic politics as he is to international institutional shadowed governance and my guess is that he should have a fair idea, by now, of when and what to message in his current position.
On a mere national level, one could argue that this is just another politician starting to have to think of re-election. From an interantional perspective, I suspect the prime minister's announcement was previewed, pre-authorized and planned by Portugal's foreign creditors, most of which must constantly consider the contagious effects within an Eurozone.
This would imply that the Portuguese government, the political parties which created it, the IMF, the EU and the ECB all have finally come to terms that the austerity package as a combination of sovereign financial aid with structural reforms as it was agreed and implemented in the spring of 2011 will not work or, worse, is seriously threathened with adverse effects.
There's a popular quote which more or less dictates that people, and thus societies and the governments they produce, will cause change either when they realistically want to or when they simply have to and in Portugal's case it has arrived to the latter.
While they will be composing plan B on some serious cuts in state apparatus for submission to creditors, I wonder if Mr Passos Coelho and his political followers are conscient whether in fact they will be surrendering towards the very first intentions of a plan A, carefully kept in a drawer in some foreign desk.
For sake of the Portuguese population I hope that that desk belongs to someone of good faith and in search of synergies in cross border terms. I am not so sure that desk houses at institutions like the IMF, the EU or the ECB, however.
2012-10-18
Thinking out of a box of chocolates
Life may be a box of chocolates, but Belgian politics certainly are not. Outsiders pretty much know what to expect on the inside and so it was with the municipal elections this past Sunday.
Traditional parties who have been losing their creaminess while in office seek to fence what they still can before being unwrapped. Innovated noisier and occasional nut filled parties win votes and rebel against the established with a too glossy cherry on top, proclaiming future tasty victories on a wider national level in the future, denied by melting losers.
In their competing fury, all parties appear to forget the people that elected them in the first place, whereas perhaps what the electorate really needs is some chocolate milkshake, chocolate spread, chocolate springles, chocolate mousse ........
I spend many of my adolescent years in a then still relative informally bilingual Antwerp part of a not yet federal Kingdom and my interests did not - of course - connect with local politics at all. At present time however, they still do not and it strikes me that neighbouring countries, not to mention the rest of the world take a fairly similar position of indifference, which is intriguing if you consider the proportional amount of municipal, provincial, federal and national political bodies the country houses, not to mention the EU parliament and other institutions.
The to the ouside world apparent eternal inward looking struggle over language may gain more momentum than most would wish for when the next national elections are held in 2014, along with referenda in Scotland, Catalunya and, of course, the European Parliament.
I wonder if Mr Barroso, whose mandate is up also in 2014, would expect Flanders and Wallonie (and thus Brussels itself) to potentially negotiate EU membership in similar vein as he recently suggested Catalunya should.
Too many chefs in the praline kitchen maybe ?
Traditional parties who have been losing their creaminess while in office seek to fence what they still can before being unwrapped. Innovated noisier and occasional nut filled parties win votes and rebel against the established with a too glossy cherry on top, proclaiming future tasty victories on a wider national level in the future, denied by melting losers.
In their competing fury, all parties appear to forget the people that elected them in the first place, whereas perhaps what the electorate really needs is some chocolate milkshake, chocolate spread, chocolate springles, chocolate mousse ........
I spend many of my adolescent years in a then still relative informally bilingual Antwerp part of a not yet federal Kingdom and my interests did not - of course - connect with local politics at all. At present time however, they still do not and it strikes me that neighbouring countries, not to mention the rest of the world take a fairly similar position of indifference, which is intriguing if you consider the proportional amount of municipal, provincial, federal and national political bodies the country houses, not to mention the EU parliament and other institutions.
The to the ouside world apparent eternal inward looking struggle over language may gain more momentum than most would wish for when the next national elections are held in 2014, along with referenda in Scotland, Catalunya and, of course, the European Parliament.
I wonder if Mr Barroso, whose mandate is up also in 2014, would expect Flanders and Wallonie (and thus Brussels itself) to potentially negotiate EU membership in similar vein as he recently suggested Catalunya should.
Too many chefs in the praline kitchen maybe ?
2012-10-13
Peace of mind
When we all debated the somewhat surprising and possibly too original angle of the Nobel Peace prize for Al Gore's climate change initiative in 2007, I could detect a meaningful sense in the award within a world which was at relative peace or durable truce in arms and thus potentially set for a next level of ambitious harmony.
I had greater difficulty with the award to then recently elected Barack Obama in 2009, which suggested that a mere mass media caught message of hope in itself would be a contributor to a better world. It certainly can be, but does it dignify the messenger a Nobel Peace Prize ?
With the EU now being the 2012 Laureate for peace, I hear the explanation of the Norwegian branch but get troubled with the thought of whom might come to collect the award, but maybe I am wrong and a random EU citizen will be invited to rent a white tie and come to Oslo City Hall.
I suposse that the gross of Nobel prizes will have primarily served to stimulate or attribute an impulse to whom is need for an extra push in the right direction and in that respect the thought that the EU would be one of the neediest candidates at this point in time is scary.
The amount of socialogical studies on nut cases like the one that conducted the attacks on Utøya and very near from where the Nobel Peace Committee itself is elected, tend to demonstrate that such cases are indeed an increasing threat to (inter)national security or even stability, which in itself hints that we are facing a tough job looking forward in catering to individual freedom within a more collective (self) rule. Then again, that is a hard issue to handle, not exclusive to the EU.
It would have fit the Nobel institute well in today's world to step out of the normal 9 month nominee evaluation period and pick 14 year old Malala Yousafzai as a vibrant forward looking candidate in need of a push.
Oh well, at least we can find comfort knowing that this Monday, the Nobel prize in economic sciences will not go to the European Union.
I had greater difficulty with the award to then recently elected Barack Obama in 2009, which suggested that a mere mass media caught message of hope in itself would be a contributor to a better world. It certainly can be, but does it dignify the messenger a Nobel Peace Prize ?
With the EU now being the 2012 Laureate for peace, I hear the explanation of the Norwegian branch but get troubled with the thought of whom might come to collect the award, but maybe I am wrong and a random EU citizen will be invited to rent a white tie and come to Oslo City Hall.
I suposse that the gross of Nobel prizes will have primarily served to stimulate or attribute an impulse to whom is need for an extra push in the right direction and in that respect the thought that the EU would be one of the neediest candidates at this point in time is scary.
The amount of socialogical studies on nut cases like the one that conducted the attacks on Utøya and very near from where the Nobel Peace Committee itself is elected, tend to demonstrate that such cases are indeed an increasing threat to (inter)national security or even stability, which in itself hints that we are facing a tough job looking forward in catering to individual freedom within a more collective (self) rule. Then again, that is a hard issue to handle, not exclusive to the EU.
It would have fit the Nobel institute well in today's world to step out of the normal 9 month nominee evaluation period and pick 14 year old Malala Yousafzai as a vibrant forward looking candidate in need of a push.
Oh well, at least we can find comfort knowing that this Monday, the Nobel prize in economic sciences will not go to the European Union.
2012-10-09
The luxury of being small
I think I would instantly like Jean-Claude Juncker if I would meet him personally. A man with many hats and an apparent constant flair of realistic optimism and persistent relativism that tends to fill rooms which otherwise would risk being overloaded with generally serious, less affirmative fellow governors on the many European summits. I am starting to detect a linear regression between the amount of backpatting, hugging and kissing a head of state or finance minister gets from Mr Juncker and the level of trouble the respective country is in, at that point in time.
He has done well for the subjects of the Grand Duke and Duchness of Luxembourg and in return they made him prime minister, five full mandates in a row. No wonder other European heads of state and finance ministers welcome a lucky hug.
Possibly Mr Juncker's smooth abilities are a natural inheretance from his predecessors. Through history Luxembourg has shown equal skill in simultaneously handle foreign royalty, generals and governors, and generally managed to be at the origin of multilateral foundations.
Three official languages amongst a population of much less than a million, half of which are immigrants, nearly nill natural resources or comparative advantages show not be a restraint for maintaining a prosperous and peaceful little nation.
Perhaps there are more best practices to be envied and/or copied by the many mini-provinces and states around Europe that have not managed to remain sovereign throughout modern history.
I doubt Mr Juncker would have anticipated that taking on the presidency of the Eurogroup back in 2005 would be more than less of a part time back office job and I am afraid the Eurozone just got lucky with having a president who happend to prime minister a reasonable self governing country.
So when Mr Juncker declares it is about time Angela Merkel goes to Greece on what Germany calls a normal visit without agenda, I suspect he already looks beyond a rough day of local anger and protest and the manageability of an outcome we commoners will only learn about later this month.
I cannot help wondering who will pick up the bill for the extra security arrangements this day.
He has done well for the subjects of the Grand Duke and Duchness of Luxembourg and in return they made him prime minister, five full mandates in a row. No wonder other European heads of state and finance ministers welcome a lucky hug.
Possibly Mr Juncker's smooth abilities are a natural inheretance from his predecessors. Through history Luxembourg has shown equal skill in simultaneously handle foreign royalty, generals and governors, and generally managed to be at the origin of multilateral foundations.
Three official languages amongst a population of much less than a million, half of which are immigrants, nearly nill natural resources or comparative advantages show not be a restraint for maintaining a prosperous and peaceful little nation.
Perhaps there are more best practices to be envied and/or copied by the many mini-provinces and states around Europe that have not managed to remain sovereign throughout modern history.
I doubt Mr Juncker would have anticipated that taking on the presidency of the Eurogroup back in 2005 would be more than less of a part time back office job and I am afraid the Eurozone just got lucky with having a president who happend to prime minister a reasonable self governing country.
So when Mr Juncker declares it is about time Angela Merkel goes to Greece on what Germany calls a normal visit without agenda, I suspect he already looks beyond a rough day of local anger and protest and the manageability of an outcome we commoners will only learn about later this month.
I cannot help wondering who will pick up the bill for the extra security arrangements this day.
2012-10-02
Confiteor Deo
There would have to be a deep rooted and widespread feeling of mea culpa haunting those Eurozone countries where governments have fallen ahead of bailouts or similar foreign (politically) negotiated terms.
It is this sentiment, nearly in the original Roman Catholic closed confession sense, what makes Ireland different from Greece, Portugal and Spain in the intensly debated adequacy of troika aid or influence on an economy and a society, which we have now seen operative long enough to seek comparison with self imposed austerity programmes in various other countries.
In nearly all southern Eurozone members, less than the regular handful of established political parties will woo for at least another 100 years inside institutional corredors and seek to occupy local front page and prime time tv news to pinpoint which party was responsible for not avoiding and / or formally soliciting foreign financing conditions.
This is less innocent than what meets eye, even if one believes that a politician's job description is to talk more than to undertake. It is what maintains any kind of structural recovery programming of a country inside the traditional political arena or box and thus almost consequently outside a wider perspective of other stakeholders that would represent the general public's interest closer, in a more pragmatic manner and with swifter skill to implement, i.e. better, than political delegates organized in parties generally do.
Public submission of ideas or otherwise referenda at this stage risks being something similar to inviting Real Madrid fans to come in the last 10 minutes of a game to try to invert the score. As a consequence, patronizing politicians, whether in or out of government will continue to clash with a streetwise protesting society.
This does not imply politicians are the only ones to blame, after all most of them are (by)products of the same national civil society, nor does is relieve the general public from guilt for allowing matters (not) to evolve further.
It is mostly this what will prolongue (the perception of) a crisis longer than need be and neither deja vu censure motions, early elections nor strikes and massive demonstrations will take us out of the box. Time to get out of the confessional and out of the box.
It is this sentiment, nearly in the original Roman Catholic closed confession sense, what makes Ireland different from Greece, Portugal and Spain in the intensly debated adequacy of troika aid or influence on an economy and a society, which we have now seen operative long enough to seek comparison with self imposed austerity programmes in various other countries.
In nearly all southern Eurozone members, less than the regular handful of established political parties will woo for at least another 100 years inside institutional corredors and seek to occupy local front page and prime time tv news to pinpoint which party was responsible for not avoiding and / or formally soliciting foreign financing conditions.
This is less innocent than what meets eye, even if one believes that a politician's job description is to talk more than to undertake. It is what maintains any kind of structural recovery programming of a country inside the traditional political arena or box and thus almost consequently outside a wider perspective of other stakeholders that would represent the general public's interest closer, in a more pragmatic manner and with swifter skill to implement, i.e. better, than political delegates organized in parties generally do.
Public submission of ideas or otherwise referenda at this stage risks being something similar to inviting Real Madrid fans to come in the last 10 minutes of a game to try to invert the score. As a consequence, patronizing politicians, whether in or out of government will continue to clash with a streetwise protesting society.
This does not imply politicians are the only ones to blame, after all most of them are (by)products of the same national civil society, nor does is relieve the general public from guilt for allowing matters (not) to evolve further.
It is mostly this what will prolongue (the perception of) a crisis longer than need be and neither deja vu censure motions, early elections nor strikes and massive demonstrations will take us out of the box. Time to get out of the confessional and out of the box.
2012-10-01
Connecting whom with what ?
1998 was an exciting year in Lisbon. Above all it was a year wherein my wife and me got family and friends from nearly every continent to Lisbon for our wedding and we subsequently commenced building our home. Queen Beatrix and His Royal Heighness Claus - and many other heads of state - also came to visit but that was on the occassion of the World Exhibtion.
At the final day of the Expo 98, waves of people from within Portugal and elsewhere travelled to the exhibition's site to have one final glance of Portugal's glorious and natural role as a host to a refreshing connection with ocean life. "I'll call you when I get there" was the talk amongst Lisbonners, who were well on their way on beating a world record of mobile phone ownership per capita.
Then, much before another wave of spectacular midnight fireworks to get a party going, a social disaster struck the air; the three national mobile phone networks blacked out, leaving a million texting and roaming individuals with no alternative than to cue up in front of dozens of fixed phone booths .
Even worse, all of a sudden the masses were suprisingly confronted with having to verbally agree in the time allowed by a coin of a 100 Escudos and a nervous crowd behind them, where and when to meet in the unfamiliar surroundings of this newly constructed part of Lisbon.
I suspect that somewhere in the crowd a disguished Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg thought by themselves, there must be another way.
And indeed a bit more than a decade later, enormous amounts of people pretty much anywhere in the world manage to get together without ever having exchanged a single conversation, crowding behind a single slogan, claiming to be the representing democratic majority of a population's purpose.
Maybe.
I can also understand Mr Rajoy's reaction via the media and press that a million protesters on a square do not per sé represent a further 30 million at home, school or work, especially in times where news does indeed travel fast anywhere.
At the final day of the Expo 98, waves of people from within Portugal and elsewhere travelled to the exhibition's site to have one final glance of Portugal's glorious and natural role as a host to a refreshing connection with ocean life. "I'll call you when I get there" was the talk amongst Lisbonners, who were well on their way on beating a world record of mobile phone ownership per capita.
Then, much before another wave of spectacular midnight fireworks to get a party going, a social disaster struck the air; the three national mobile phone networks blacked out, leaving a million texting and roaming individuals with no alternative than to cue up in front of dozens of fixed phone booths .
Even worse, all of a sudden the masses were suprisingly confronted with having to verbally agree in the time allowed by a coin of a 100 Escudos and a nervous crowd behind them, where and when to meet in the unfamiliar surroundings of this newly constructed part of Lisbon.
I suspect that somewhere in the crowd a disguished Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg thought by themselves, there must be another way.
And indeed a bit more than a decade later, enormous amounts of people pretty much anywhere in the world manage to get together without ever having exchanged a single conversation, crowding behind a single slogan, claiming to be the representing democratic majority of a population's purpose.
Maybe.
I can also understand Mr Rajoy's reaction via the media and press that a million protesters on a square do not per sé represent a further 30 million at home, school or work, especially in times where news does indeed travel fast anywhere.
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